Forrester's Staten: Realities of private and hybrid clouds aren't what you're expecting

James Staten does not pull punches. And for an IT industry analyst, that’s a good thing.

I first met James a few years back when he joined Forrester during my time at Cassatt. I heard him do a couple presentations at that year’s Forrester IT Forum, had some briefing sessions with him, and realized that with James, friendly conversations quickly turn into very specific advice and commentary. Even better, it was advice and commentary that was very much on target.

For those of you who don’t know James, he is a principal analyst in Forrester Research’s Infrastructure & Operations practice, helping IT ops folks make sense of topics like virtualization, cloud computing, IT consolidation best practices, and other data center- and server-focused issues. From my perspective, James has been a great addition to Forrester, especially in his role as one of the earliest voices helping describe the impact and meaning of cloud computing.

So, I thought I’d turn him loose on a couple current cloud computing topics and see if we couldn’t find a few things to argue over. In a good way, of course. Here’s that interview:

Jay Fry, Data Center Dialog: There’s lots of debate about how cloud computing takes hold in an organization. Some see people starting with public clouds. There is also lots of conversation about private clouds. In your discussions with customers, what path do you see end user organizations taking now – and is it even possible to make any generalizations?

James Staten, Forrester: Most of the time enterprises start by experimenting with public clouds. They are easy to consume and deliver fast results. And typically the folks in the enterprises who do so are application developers and they are simply trying to get their work done as fast and easy as possible and see IT ops as slow, expensive, and a headache to deal with.

In response to this, IT ops likes the idea of a private cloud – their word, not mine. This usually translates into an internal cloud and the desire is to transform parts (if not all) of their virtual server environment into a cloud. Usually this transformation happens only in name, not in operation -- and that’s where a disconnect arises. IT ops pros tend to rebut public cloud by saying, “Hey, I can provision a VM in minutes, too.” But that’s not the full value of cloud computing. Fast deployment is just the beginning.

DCD: How do you see hybrid cloud environments coming into the picture? How soon will that be a reality?

James Staten: It’s a reality for some firms today, but not in the way that many people think. A hybrid between your internal data center and a public cloud isn’t very realistic due to latency, cost, and security. A hybrid between your internal cloud and a public cloud isn’t realistic either. (See the above answers for why.) What is realistic is a hybrid between dedicated hosting and cloud hosting within the same hosting provider. USA.gov is doing just such a thing in Terremark’s Alexandria, VA data center (Forrester customers can read a case study on this here). This kind of a hybrid allows the two separate environments to share the same backbone network and security parameters. And it allows the business service being supported to match the right type of resources to the right parts of the service.

For example, you may not want or need elastic scalability for your database tier, so it’s more stable and economical to host it on a dedicated resource with a predictable 12-month contract. But you have a lot of resource consumption volatility in the app and web tiers and so they are best served being hosted in a cloud environment.

DCD: I’ve written here before about rogue deployments using cloud computing from business users without the explicit buy-in of the IT department. Do you see that as likely or commonplace? How should IT deal with these?

James Staten: They are extremely common place as evidenced by our role-based research, which shows that when you ask application developers if their company is using cloud, you get back that 24% say yes; you ask the same question to IT ops pros and get back that 5% say yes. Clearly app dev is using the cloud and cimcumventing IT ops in doing so. It’s no surprise. They see IT ops as slow and rigid.

How should IT ops respond? First, you can’t be draconian and say, “Don’t use cloud.” Those who are parents know how well that works. Instead, IT ops needs to add value to this activity so they are invited into this process. They need to embrace the use of public clouds by asking how they can help.

DCD: What are some of the big changes that you see underway with regard to cloud computing this year so far? Has anything really surprised you?

James Staten: This year will be all about understanding where to start for most companies, how to move from testing the waters for the percentage who have already gotten this far, and how to optimize your cloud deployment for those who have already moved into production on public clouds.

For IT ops, this year is about roadmapping your transformation for running a virtual server environment to running an internal cloud. They won’t get there in one year but they can build the plan and start moving now.

Nothing has really surprised me in the past 12 months but I look forward to seeing the innovative ways companies will devise to take advantage of clouds in the future. We’ve seen some very promising starts.

DCD: Acquisitions are shaping up to be a major storyline this year from my point of view. And I’m not just saying that because of CA’s recent moves with Cassatt, Oblicore, 3Tera, and Nimsoft; there have been many. You were recently commenting on Twitter about confusion coming from Oracle about the management products related to their Sun acquisition. What role do you think acquisitions are (and should) play in shaping what customers have to choose from in the cloud computing space?

James Staten: For the most part, acquisitions in a new emerging space are about speed to market. The leading software companies could adapt their existing enterprise products to incorporate and integrate cloud computing, but that’s hard, as there are already 50-100 other priorities on the roadmap that keep the installed base happy. Acquisitions also inject new blood (new thinking, new technologies, perhaps even new culture) into an existing player and that is often sorely needed to drive a sense of urgency around addressing a new market opportunity because the immediate revenue opportunity in the new market is much smaller. This is at the heart of Clayton Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma. Cloud computing looks very much like a disruptive innovation and according to Christensen’s theory, the disruption can be a king-maker for those that lead the disruption (and make a pauper out of those being disrupted). So that fuels the belief that acquisitions are necessary.

DCD: You wrote one of the earliest analyst reports on cloud computing in March 2008 (“Is Cloud Computing Ready for the Enterprise?”). You’ve also been on top of “how to” topics for end users with research to help clarify some of the fuzziness around cloud computing (“Which Cloud Computing Platform is Right for You?” [April 2009], “Best Practices: Infrastructure-as-a-Service” [Sept. 2009], etc.). Given how the cloud computing category – and the industry debate – has evolved, would you approach some of your earlier research differently now? Any conclusions you would change?

James Staten: No, I feel proud of the research we have done as it was backed by real-world interviews with those who are leading this evolution, rather than theories and leaps of faith about what might occur. We were also very clear in our objective of clarifying what was truly new and different about cloud computing to help guide customers through what we knew would be a hype-filled world. It’s unfortunate the industry has latched on so tightly to the term “private cloud” because in our opinion it is a very nebulous and thus meaningless concept. Heck, anything can be made private. But then again, cloud computing isn’t most precise term, either.

DCD: If many years from now we’re thinking back on how cloud computing got started versus how it ended up, there will be an interesting storyline about the degree of difference between the two. How much of the hype around cloud computing should be ignored and how fundamental do you think it will end up being? What’s going to be the thing that really makes cloud more mainstream in your opinion?

James Staten: The one part about the hype that I think should be ignored is the belief that everything will be cloud in the future. While this is a nice, disruptive statement that draws a ton of discussion and "what if" thinking, it simply isn’t realistic. If it were, there would be no mainframes today. Everything old is still running in enterprise data centers; we simply contain these technologies as we move to adopt new ones that arise.

And cloud computing is definitely not an answer to every question. Some applications have no business in the cloud and frankly will be less efficient if put there.

It’s through better understanding of what the cloud is good for and what it isn’t that IT will move forward. At the heart of cloud computing is the idea of shared empowerment – that by agreeing to a standardized way of doing something, we can share that implementation and thus garner greater efficiencies from it. That concept will manifest itself in many ways over the coming years. SaaS is a classic example that is delivering new and greater functionality to customers faster. IaaS is a great example because when multiple customers share the same pool of resources the overall utilization of the pool can be higher and thus the cost of the infrastructure can be spread more effectively across a bigger customer set, lowering the cost of deployment for all. Take this further and you can imagine many more scenarios:

· Why buy any software when it is more efficient to rent it only when you need it? We haven’t seen that model in SaaS yet.

· Why write code when you can more easily construct a business service by stringing service elements together? This is the core of SOA and builds upon the Java construct of reusable libraries. How far can we take that?

· Why store anything yourself when storing things on the Internet allows that data to be anywhere you are, whenever you need it to be – and to be self-correcting? I’ve been using Plaxo for over 5 years to keep track of all my business contacts so I don’t really care if I lose my mobile phone, laptop, or other device that stores this information. Now that Plaxo links with Facebook and LinkedIn, all the people in my address book can update their own records and I get this info as soon as it is synced. That’s distributed data management in the cloud. Can this same model be applied to other data and storage problems?

DCD: So, what area do you think is the next battleground?

James Staten: There are many areas that will be effected by cloud computing. One market that greatly interests me right now is HPC/grid computing. Loosely-coupled applications are a great fit for the cloud today and flip the economics of grid on their head. There are some incredible examples of companies using this combination to transform how they do business in healthcare, financial services, government and many other fields. Business intelligence is fertile ground for change due to this and the influx of MapReduce. I’m really looking forward to seeing what changes in this arena.

DCD: What do you believe will be some of the more interesting starting points for customers’ cloud-based activity?

James Staten: You gotta start with test and development because this is the one area where any company can get immediate benefit. Every enterprise has a queue of test projects waiting to get lab resources. Use the cloud as an escape valve for these projects. Then take a look at your web applications. If they have traffic volatility they are natural fit for cloud.

DCD: Do you see any dead-ends that some customers are heading down that others should be careful to avoid?

James Staten: It’s a total dead end to think that you can simply buy a “cloud in a box” and suddenly you have an internal cloud. Internal cloud isn’t a “what,” it’s a “how.” How you operate the environment is far more the determiner of [the benefit of] cloud computing than the infrastructure and software technologies it is based on. This is true for service providers, too. Just because an ISP has expertise in managing physical or virtual servers doesn’t mean they can effectively run a cloud. Sure, some of the cloud building block technologies can help you get there, but this is totally an operational efficiency play.

DCD: Forrester recently changed its blogging policy for its analysts to require that any content in research-related areas be posted only to official Forrester blogs. Did this move make it harder or easier to blog, and do you think it’s going to help customers in the long run?

James Staten: It made it significantly easier for me as I strongly believe in separation between work and personal life, and equally believe in freedom of expression – and thankfully, so does Forrester. While I can’t speak for every analyst (nor can I speak for Forrester on this topic), I can say personally that this change in policy was a good one. Prior to this we had team blogs, rather than blogs for each analyst, and if someone wanted their own stage, they had to go outside to do it. Now our blogging platform gives every analyst their own outlet while preserving the aggregation of blog content by client role. We also moved to a blogging system that makes it much, much easier for me to author and publish blog entries myself. Anything that makes me more productive and helps clients consume our value is a good thing.

…

Thanks to James for spending the time for this extended interview. Of course, given that James is a pretty intense endurance runner during his off hours (he’s shooting for 8 marathons and 6 half-marathons this year – and 50 marathons by his 50th birthday), a marathon interview seemed somewhat appropriate.

If you have thoughts or feel an urge to disagree with James about any of topics we touched upon here, feel free to add your comments.

Making cloud computing work: customers at 451 Group summit say costs, trust, and people issues are key

A few weeks back, the 451 Group held a short-but-sweet Infrastructure Computing for the Enterprise (ICE) Summit to discuss "cloud computing in context." Their analysts, some vendors, and some actual customers each gave their own perspective on how the move to cloud computing is going -- and even what's keeping it from going.

The customers especially (as you might expect) came up with some interesting commentary. I'm always eager to dig into customer feedback on cloud computing successes and roadblocks, and thought some of the tidbits we heard at the event were worth recounting here.

(A side note: if you're interested in more cloud-related customer comments, you can look at some previous Data Center Dialog posts, including this one recounting questions overheard about internal clouds from a few months back.)

Clouds under the radar

As a way to set the stage, 451 Group analyst and ICE practice lead Rachel Chalmers compared cloud computing’s adoption to that of Linux in the late '90s, and to the beginnings of server virtualization in dev/test environments. "There was a lot of VMware [being used in IT] before CIOs even knew it was there. It only belatedly comes to the attention of the architects." Chalmers was clear that adoption is underway ("Customers are already using cloud," she said), and emphasized how under-the-radar adoption like this can really help. "They come pre-evangelized," said Chalmers. That means there are a lot fewer people to convince when it comes time to make the case to roll this out widely.

Customers: Some hesitate to call it cloud

Yuvi Kochar, CTO from the Washington Post Company, saw the work that his teams were doing as shared services, and said, "I hesitate to call this work a cloud." He acknowledged that they were enabling elasticity and cost accounting, but that some of what they were working on was still "hand-wired." What was the thing that pushed Kochar over the edge to move toward dynamic, shared IT services (even if he can't bring himself to actually it "cloud")? Cost. "We want to move everything to a variable cost model," Kochar said. Another customer, Ljubomir Buturovic, VP & chief scientist from Pathworks Diagnostic, said they told their server vendor they would be buying no more hardware, and they haven't. Again: cost was the driver -- in this case, capital costs.

Cloud: It's (still) not for the faint of heart

I thought some of the most useful insights of the customer panel were from Jim Houghton, now co-founder and CTO of Adaptivity. Houghton reflected back on his experiences a few years ago getting what could now be termed a private cloud -- then called utility computing -- off the ground at Wachovia and Bank of America. He characterized the work as something which eventually turned into a $100-million project to stabilize a "chaotic environment" in IT and "took out $500 million in op ex."

Houghton noted that he and his employers at the time "learned a lot of hard lessons along the way." For example, the mechanisms for truly automated provisioning and handling dynamic shifts in demand are "really important," but really hard, especially since the tools at that time he started (early to mid-2000s) were still quite immature. Metering what you're using is critical, he said, but "it's hard to meter when you're separate from the physical environment." Overall, said Houghton, cloud-style dynamic infrastructure is "not for the faint of heart."

Funny. I heard Donna Scott of Gartner make the same observation about creating a real-time infrastructure back in December. We've come a long way, but there's more to do, for sure.

Biggest pain: impact on the people and the organization

Houghton identified a couple best practices for making the shift to a dynamic, shared infrastructure to support your applications: for example, workloads that are entirely self-contained and in which you have access to the source code make excellent candidates for these types of deployments. However, he said, you need to truly understand the workload characteristics. That last bit is something I've heard many large IT organizations lament as a huge problem -- profiling what they currently have and how it runs.

However, he said, the more painful thing is the change in the operational model and its impact on a company's organization and the people that work in it. I've heard this many times over the past several years, from customers, analysts, and even vendors. You can't underestimate the impact that the cloud operating model will have on personnel.

"It gets to be a very touchy subject for clients," said Houghton. "It's hard to do the business cost model without talking about 'these 20 people will be out of a job.'" Or at least who can be moved to focus different things than they're focused on today.

Need to move beyond just virtualization

Houghton also made a comment that infrastructure that's "mildly virtualized may be efficient, but is not all that dynamic." I have to agree: there is a lot more needed to make a private cloud-style infrastructure fly than loading up on a bunch of virtual servers. In fact, that point was made pretty strongly when Dan Kusnetzky lined up his fellow 451 Group analysts to highlight some of the cloud computing inhibitors. William Fellows conveniently rattled off some of his (and the industry's) favorites: security, SLA support, corporate governance, interoperability, vendor viability, job security, and misaligned business models. To name a few.

These are issues we've heard before, for sure, and are at the top of the list of things to be addressed in order for cloud computing to be viable day-to-day in an IT shop. I think it's good news that we're hearing more and more about the manageability side of the issue.

Can I drive your Mercedes while you're not using it?

One of the strongest objections to an internal cloud, or really a shared infrastructure of any sort, still boils down to what's called "server hugging." Houghton gave an amusing explanation of the mentality by putting it this way: "Just because I have 4 Mercedes and I can only drive 1 at a time, doesn’t mean I'm going to let you drive the other 3." In his case, the team of coworkers and vendors pitching this new approach had to put in "years of work" to "build up the trust. What you have to say in response is, 'You'll get everything you wanted, plus a lot more.'" And, of course, you have to back it up by delivering on your promises with great cost savings, excellent service levels, and an improved ability to respond to new requirements from the business.

Are we making progress on cloud computing?

Chalmers noted that in many cases a move to cloud computing doesn't feel like progress at all. "All we're doing is moving the headaches somewhere else. But," she said, those management headaches "still need to be solved."

Fellows noted that there really isn't any definition of success so far. Early adopters of grid, utility computing, and virtualization have been the ones in his experience to be most aggressive in working toward cloud-style environments. "It’s a logical end-point for any of those [earlier] activities," said Fellows.

In fact, said Chalmers, "very often when we see an early adopter of cloud that's successful, it's because they understood HPC [high-performance computing] and putting everything under control in the data center."

So, are we making progress toward incorporating cloud computing in today's IT environment?

Houghton from Adaptivity made the point that "the economic malaise has put a lot of power back into the CTO's hands." It's a chance to use this power to instigate more sweeping changes to how IT operates than any time in recent memory. But people are being judicious with that power.

Appropriately, Chalmers probably did the best job of putting cloud computing in that context: "In this world of financial crisis, the acid test of any technology is: 'Does anyone care enough to sign a purchase order?'" Clearly, some do. (And some fraction of those are on stage at events like this talking about what they've done and learned.) And, as the industry matures the management capabilities and works out the kinks that many of these customers noted, others will start to feel that it's time to sign on the dotted line, too. And hopefully join them on stage.

Derrick Harris interview: Cloud computing 'blows away' grid's value prop

For those who watch the cloud space, you probably noticed that the bad economy took down one of the more rational voices in the conversation a few weeks back. On Dec. 19, On-Demand Enterprise (once known as GRIDtoday) froze its content and sent its editorial staff packing. Their depressing blurb saying as much is atop all of their site’s pages now.

Derrick Harris, the editor of that publication, was one of the casualties. Derrick covered the move to on-demand computing in the virtual pages of that pub, helping clear away some of the fog for readers. He had been providing a sort of measuring stick for the expansion and shifts in the cloud discussion, and along the way was never afraid to call vendors on what they were doing. Needless to say, it was a bummer for the community to have that pub collapse.

The good news: I have it on good authority that you'll be hearing from Derrick again soon. In fact, he's due to resurface with the good folks over at GigaOM shortly. In the meantime, I thought I'd get Derrick's thoughts on the cloud computing space that he has covered pretty thoroughly for so long. (How's that for turning the tables a bit on one of our journalist friends?)

To give you an idea of his healthy skepticism, here's a bit from one of his posts last summer: "Personally, I have had my fill of cloud computing for a while. Depending on who you ask, it's either great or it's terrible, it's either the biggest IT innovation since the PC or it's an elaborate ruse designed to both take your money and leave you and your data as vulnerable as a newborn. As I've stated on numerous occasions, the truth -- presently and in the real world -- resides somewhere in the middle."

I also like this snippet (from the same post), which, whether he meant it that way or not, is a great summary of the State of the Cloud, which seems to still be holding true at the moment: "Long story short: I'm tired of writing about cloud computing every week (I really am), but I cannot stand to see the propagation of misconceptions without at least voicing a rational opinion in the name of clarification. Enterprise-wise, cloud computing is not ready for primetime just yet, but there are plenty of reasons that make it an attractive option, with production-ready in-house versions being a near-term reality. In the meantime, big companies will use it for testing purposes, small companies might use it for real, and the cloud providers will continue to hone their offerings." Three cheers for rational discourse.

With that, here's the first part of my interview with Derrick:

Jay Fry, Data Center Dialog: From your time as managing editor at GRIDtoday and then as it became On-Demand Enterprise, you've had a chance to watch (and bring attention to) the rise of cloud computing. What convinced you that this "cloud" stuff was going to be something worth covering and something impactful?

Derrick Harris: I think what most convinced me that cloud computing is worth covering is how it parallels -- and then blows away -- the value propositions touted by grid vendors a few years ago. When I first started at GRIDtoday, there was much talk about capacity on demand, utility-style access, etc., as they related to grid computing, but the reality was that these capabilities only benefited certain application types, and then only grid-enabled applications. As cloud computing (both internal and external) started to take shape, this capacity-on-demand value prop was expanded to reach many more applications, flexibility was increased, and, generally, far less work and infrastructural change was required to take advantage of these benefits.

DCD: How important do you think cloud computing is going to be? What sort of impact do you think it will have on enterprises?

Derrick Harris: I think it's going to be very important, eventually becoming all but ubiquitous -- there are just too many cost savings and competitive advantages to be had by moving certain operations to the cloud. (That said, I'm not about to venture a guess as to when this ubiquity will be reality.) As far impact goes, I think Werner Vogels says it best when he talks about eliminating "undifferentiated heavy lifting" and focusing human and financial resources on a company's strengths. That could mean unprecedented levels of productivity.

DCD: What are some of the most interesting/compelling components of what's going on in the cloud space right now? What’s headed in the right direction?

Derrick Harris: I think one of the dead-on trends right now (and not just because I'm talking to someone from Cassatt) is the incorporation of policy-based power management into internal cloud offerings. This really melds the on-demand, hands-free promise of cloud computing with the harsh realities that companies need to save money wherever they can and, in some areas, additional power is tough to come by. It also allows internal vendors to compete with external providers on the cost-savings and green fronts. The increased availability of external clouds supporting Windows would seem to be a big deal, as well.

DCD: What's headed toward a dead-end?

Derrick Harris: I think it's too early to call anything a dead end just yet, as most offerings are in their early stages, but I do think large vendors need to be wary of building their external cloud platforms too cumbersome and/or too proprietary. It is the simplicity and openness of cloud computing that are so compelling.

DCD: What's the most surprising trend, innovation, or happening that you’ve seen recently?

Derrick Harris: I don't know that it's surprising, but I am very intrigued by the notion of using humans as cloud resources. Amazon Web Services' Mechanical Turk probably is the most prominent example of this, but I've also seen it in the QA testing area with uTest. Cloud computing is all about evolving how we compute, so I always am interested when I see unique ways of defining "computing."

DCD: Any predictions you'd care to make for 2009 or cloud computing or enterprise IT in general?

Derrick Harris: Not really, other than that I think the table has been set for 2009 to be a big year for cloud players – particularly when it comes to attracting enterprise users. Most everyone has put their stake in the ground, some have really solidified their offerings, and there is plenty of user interest.

DCD: What effect do you think this lovely economy will have on the adoption of cloud computing? I've heard comments both ways.

Derrick Harris: Well, vendors and some analysts have said cloud computing will be a savior of IT budgets in this nightmarish economy. Logically, this forecast makes a lot of sense, and companies willing to give cloud a try could reap substantial rewards. However, I think the reality might be that many organizations will see the economy as another reason to naysay cloud computing, feeling that failure could be fatal so it's better to just maintain the status quo. I don't mean to skirt around the question, but I just think it's too early to tell.

If there is a surefire bright spot, it is start-ups. Innovation certainly hasn't died, and with credit and funding becoming scarce, cloud computing will continue to be a great way for start-ups (particularly Web-based start-ups) to keep their IT costs manageable so they can grow the end product. Success stories already are piling up.
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Next time: More from Derrick on the perils of being a high-tech journalist in this economy.